WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.” Anthony Watts considers this recent report by The World Meteorological Organization a “stunning statement” about the frequency of cyclones. They haven’t increased statistically, so there’s no global warming! Anthony found this on right-wing political scientist (and self-proclaimed “honest broker”) Roger Pielke Jr.’s blog.
Actually, among other things the authors say “it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone frequency have exceeded the variability expected through natural causes.” Emphasis mine. Not quite so stunning. More like scientifically honest, in fact.
This is the kind of “weather not climate” data that denialists love to talk up. It’s a low volume but variable record that is easily misrepresented. They can also count on honest scientists making the usual statistical cautionary statements, which can then be used against them (see Pielke’s blog in general).
However, I think that global warming is actually predicted to increase the intensity of cyclones, not the frequency. I also like how Anthony unselfconsciously posts a chart showing that ocean temperature has been unequivocally going up! Hey, Anthony! Shhhhhh…