“History suggests: don’t bet on La Nina this year“. Bob Tisdale prepares the troops for the unfortunate reality that the end of the Pacific Ocean’s 2009/10 El Niño current will likely not be the start of a cooling La Niña. It’s probably going to stay warm and perhaps even warm up more in spite of the cooling La Niña influence.

But don’t worry, if you fiddle with the numbers enough you can pretend it’s “natural” and continue to ignore the human contribution to climate change. Especially if you use a ten-year smoothing function.