6 thoughts on “Joe Bastardi’s 2011 Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

  1. He probably means it will come back this winter. Also again next winter …

    [Yeah, maybe a little less each time too, but that’s just natural variation. – Ben]

  2. Why does anyone listen to JB anymore? To me it seems likes he’s using weather to predict climate.

    [Well, he does love the sound of his own voice. – Ben]

  3. Careful readers will notice that he doesn’t really make a prediction. 5.5 million km^2 … ok, but is that area or extent, JAXA or NSIDC, minimum day or September average. I invited him to clarify his prediction by way of a bet I added in the comments there. No response.

    I take up forecast verification approaches at my blog, including today’s post.

    If it isn’t obvious why you need to specify the verification, this table of extents (million km^2) should help:
    5.10 — JAXA September average
    4.90 — NSIDC September average
    4.81 — JAXA minimum day
    4.60 — NSIDC minimum day

    Lot of play for someone to claim they’d made a good forecast if they get to choose verification after the fact.

    [Hats off to you for your clear and honest work! – Ben]

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