Testing … testing … is this model powered up?

Testing … testing … is this model powered up?” Willis Eschenbach guest posts on Anthony Watts’ website and mentions about Judith Curry’s “excellent blog”, where she has apparently been talking in her usual vague way about a subject that she seems to have only a superficial understanding of. In this case about “verifying and validating” climate models.

After drowning us in a deluge of Excel charts derived from a variety of old (6+ years) climate models and using a conveniently short 20-year span, Willis tells us that generalized climate models don’t mirror the specific fluctuations of real temperature trends well enough. This, somehow, is a surprise to Willis. Apparently all the climate models must be discarded now.

Newsflash: “general” is not “specific”. The impact of one-time events will never be predicted. Regardless, I guess we can’t trust any of them sneaky climate computer models, can we Anthony?

4 thoughts on “Testing … testing … is this model powered up?

  1. Another Eschenbach boner. Clearly he has no idea how climate models are evaluated. Hint: Excel is extremely uncommonly used. Duh.

  2. I know we have “Google Galileo”.

    But surely someone’s come up with something catchy for all those Excel aficionados out there who like to think they can outdo rocket science capable computers and satellites.

    And just by the by, if anyone’s at all interested in V&V they should surely put in the effort to read SE. His latest is terrific, although a bit taxing for the lazy like me.

  3. So, at the end of the day the only real equation used by Willis to discredit all climate models past, present and future is represented by this simple linear function “2-1+1=2”. I must admit, the man called Willis, is no mathematical genius!

    So, the WUWT comedy show of science fiction and fantasy mathematics continues unabated.

    As usual, the vast majority of his supporting canary chorus, were flitting around the sun in an orbit well beyond Pluto!

  4. I particularly liked this comment of Willis’ over at Judy Curry’s skeptic-flypaper blog:

    “In a just world, Thompson would not be invited to chair the faculty refreshment committee, but you and your friends hold Lonnie up as the kind of guy that should preside over other scientists.”

    The man has chutzpah to denigrate a genuine world-renowned scientist like that. Willis and Watts have one thing in common – they don’t know when to stop with the snide.

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