Klotzbach and Gray: two week hurricane forecast

Klotzbach and Gray: two week hurricane forecast. Ric Werme tells us that atmospheric scientists Klotzbach and Gray expect a late-season blip in accumulated cyclone (aka hurricanes) energy in their Colorado State University Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity but that denialist weatherman Joe Bastardi says, in The Reason for the Season and Why I Wasn’t Teasin’, that the worst is still to come.

North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy. From Klotzbach and Gray.

Who to believe? Wait, this is just conflicting weather predictions, right? How come Anthony isn’t reporting the weather in my city? I feel left out. Suddenly I understand how Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. feels!

3 thoughts on “Klotzbach and Gray: two week hurricane forecast

  1. I wonder what physical process causes that to not be a smooth curve…random.

    Seems like someone should draw a best fit curve for pre 1970* and post 1970*

    *or other cherry picked number if needed

    [I’m not sure what the inputs are here, but I highly doubt a statistician would call the pattern random! A quick Google search pulls up this chart of “named” North Atlantic storms (BTW, I hate charts that don’t start at zero). – Ben]

    • No, I meant to see if the curve has changed shape or moved forward not to see if the total has changed. I presume warmer climate would make the storm season errr wider?

      “random” is an expression of surprise/confusement

      Example:

      A:You is wearing odd shoes man!
      B:I know. I like forgot innit?
      A:Random.
      B:Yeah.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s