Category Archives: Just Keep Saying It

2009 paper confirming IPCC sea level conclusions withdrawn, mistakes cited

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“2009 paper confirming IPCC sea level conclusions withdrawn, mistakes cited“. Anthony Watts cites an article in the Guardian about the retraction of a paper that confirmed the sea level change predictions of the 2007 IPCC Report. Them scientists are always wrong!

Welcome back Maldives? Nope.

What Anthony doesn’t choose to draw attention to is that the paper’s errors were found by researchers who conclude that the predicted sea level rise will by 2100 will be 0.75m to 1.9m rather than 0.18m to 0.59m. This is a roughly three-fold increase, not the decrease that Anthony wants his readers to assume.

Fudged Fevers in the Frozen North

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“Fudged Fevers in the Frozen North“. Self-proclaimed “citizen scientist” Willis Eschenbach finds two weather stations in Alaska that he thinks are equivalent and picks nits over the differences between them even though he knows practically nothing about either weather station.

Willis admits that “I don’t understand it in the slightest”, so I guess we should take his advice that “Every single change in the data should be explained and justified” before we “spend billions of dollars based on their claims” with a grain of salt.

Bringing Skillful Observation Back To Science

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Steve Goddard, or Issac Newton?

“Bringing Skillful Observation Back To Science“. The always entertaining Steven Goddard tries once more to defend his chronically biased data manipulation with more ill-advised analogies and further demonstrations of statistical ignorance. I also love the chosen post title! If only Steven brought some skill to the table…

I suppose Anthony Watts counts on his readers to glance at some charts, read Steven say “I’m right” and subside back into their gullible state of agreement.

Must see: John Coleman’s Global Warming Special #2 – now online at YouTube

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“Must see: John Coleman’s Global Warming Special #2 – now online at YouTube“. Ah YouTube, the place where science happens, and local cable programming can go global. Same old same old from Anthony Watts’ friend John Coleman, although even Anthony distances himself a little bit by saying I should note that I don’t agree with the broad statement made in the video that “CO2 has no effect”. It does, but the magnitude of the direct effect and the feedback effects is disputed. Even Anthony steps back from that whopper! Global Warming: The Other Side is in fact the same side of disproved denialist bunk as the first “special.”

The part I like best is where Anthony again claims that the dog ate his homework on the usefulness of surface weather station records. He says that the “end part where I refute NCDC didn’t make the final cut, perhaps the producer thought it too technical due to the graph of TOBS, FILNET, and RAW data that I used to show that NCDC’s claims about a cooling trend in poorly sited station doesn’t hold up.” Anthony’s surfacestations.org project has been thoroughly spanked as useless; he keeps promising proof that his belief is correct but never delivers.

North America snow models miss the mark

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“North America snow models miss the mark“. Steven Goddard is like a moth to a flame when it comes to claiming that short-term weather factors are proof of climate trends. This post is yet another spin on the theme of there’s still snow, so how can there be global warming? Steven gets more truculent every time he gets shot down on this. There’s also a replay of the old argument that some of the “climate models” didn’t exactly predict today’s weather, so all climate models are wrong!

Surely even Anthony Watts is embarrassed by these posts? No, he’s standing by him. Perhaps he feels that Steven’s nonsense is usefully occupying the minds of suggestible denialists.

Why Is Winter Snow Extent Interesting?

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“Why Is Winter Snow Extent Interesting?“. Steven Goddard tries one more time to defend his ignorance of climatology. According to Steven snow means cold, end of story.  Just go back to Open Mind for Tamino’s utter demolition of Steve’s garbage.

John Coleman’s next TV special airs tonight

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“John Coleman’s next TV special airs tonight“. Anthony Watts’ friend, “iconic weatherman” John Coleman, airs another special on local San Diego TV. “Global Warming: Meltdown” is apparently a rehash of the failed Climategate quote-mining operation, with our own Anthony Watts and Dr. John Christy (a scientist of the “there’s only a little global warming, and maybe it’s actually good. So let’s not rush into anything” school) as guests. Coleman has yet to follow through with his threatened fraud lawsuit against Al Gore.

This sounds so amusing that I’m almost tempted to track down the inevitable YouTube link…

Antarctic Sea Ice Increase Underestimated by 50%

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IPCC gate Du Jour – Antarctic Sea Ice Increase Underestimated by 50%. A copy-and-paste from denialist lobbying operation World Climate Report. They “reckon” that there has been a significant increase in Antarctic sea ice, but are a bit cagey about why… Could it be because the land ice is sliding into the sea faster? Could it be because Antarctic sea ice is almost entirely governed by fluctuations in ocean circulation patterns?

Maybe Anthony Watt just likes the unsubstantiated claim that the IPCC’s reports are riddled with errors.

Paleo tagging past climate sensitivity

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Paleo tagging past climate sensitivity is a classic “half the story” post by Anthony Watts. A new comment in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, “Fossil soils constrain ancient climate sensitivity” basically confirms the conventional estimate of climate sensitivity to increases in CO2 that is the basis for concern about AGW. The authors state “the geologic evidence… is most consistent with long-term, future climate change being more severe than presently anticipated.“

Anthony’s predictable response is to repeat the discredited position that this “still does not address the temperature/CO2 800 year time lag seen in ice core records“. Uh, the historical “800 year lag” thing is understood and irrelevant (the impact of cyclic warming due to of the Earth’s orbital mechanics on the ocean’s dissolved CO2 content) and Anthony knows it; he just hopes you don’t. So what if Al Gore didn’t mention it in his film An Inconvenient Truth? This quote from skepticalscience.com explains the concept [italics mine]:

When the Earth comes out of an ice age, the warming is not initiated by CO2 but by changes in the Earth’s orbit. The warming causes the oceans to give up CO2. The CO2 amplifies the warming and mixes through the atmosphere, spreading warming throughout the planet.

So there are two ways for global warming to occur: an increase in heat input or a decrease in heat loss. Slow “natural” global warming seems linked to increases in heat input that release oceanic CO2, which feeds back on that warming by decreasing heat loss until the natural trigger reverses. Rapid man-made global warming lacks the natural cyclic trigger; adding CO2 into the atmosphere decreases heat loss via the greenhouse effect and this warming will cause the oceans to release additional CO2. The distinction is real and significant, no matter how the denialists try to spin away from it.

I think Anthony would have been better served to keep quiet about this one, much as he likes to try to “position” facts for his credulous audience… By the way, the global warming we are experiencing shouldn’t happen for roughly 23,000 years based on Milankovitch cycle estimates.