Spencer: Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious

Spencer: Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious“. Dr. Roy Spencer is like the Energizer Bunny on his sudden area of expertise, Urban Heat Islands. He just keeps going and going and going, and Anthony Watts just keeps printing it and printing it and printing it. A perfect symbiosis.

Dr. Spencer does finally admit that his analysis “is meant more for stimulating thought and discussion, and does not equal a peer-reviewed paper.” Let’s just say that the “could” in his report title leaves a lot of wiggle room, especially in light of his final words: “Caveat emptor.

I particularly enjoyed this bit of ‘hard science’:

There is a clear need for new, independent analyses of the global temperature data…the raw data, that is. As I have mentioned before, we need independent groups doing new and independent global temperature analyses — not international committees of Nobel laureates passing down opinions on tablets of stone.

He manages to call for delaying action, imply that the data has been tampered with, and cast wild accusations against science in just two sentences! Someone’s wound a bit tight.

4 thoughts on “Spencer: Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious

  1. He’s done better. Roy Spencer once authored a long WUWT piece of mathematical and climatalogical theorizing, that included the acknowledgement that he didn’t believe it himself. As explained, he just thought that WUWT’s readers might be interested.
    Their side does have the bigger tent: all ideas are welcome.

    • “Their side does have the bigger tent: all ideas are welcome.”

      I beg to differ. If the ideas come from the IPCC report or Michael Mann (among other sources), you’ll get hammered with comments from the WUWT mob that have nothing to do with science and everything to do with anti-science conspiracy theories.

  2. So you have two teams analyzing the satellite data, two teams analyzing the ground stations, and all their data available to the numerous amateurs who want to have a go. All four professional jobs demonstrate a high level of agreement in all the areas they cover, despite using four different methods and two entirely different data sets.

    That seems like a lot of independent analysis to me. Dr. Spencer, I suspect, will not be satisfied an analysis is sufficiently “independent” unless it produces the result he wants. [Precisely. – Ben]

  3. Giant Sequoias Yield Longest Fire History from Tree Rings

    The paper itself is available without a paywall.

    The Medieval Period discussion consists of:

    “The giant sequoia fire history indicates that fire frequently increased during the Medieval Period (about 800C.E. to 1300C.E.),and that major drought events, and to a lesser degree warming trends, probably contributed to this increase. A broad range of paleoclimatic, lake level, and fire history reconstructions confirm that the Medieval Period was exceptionally dry in the western US…This has generally been identified as the “Medieval Warm Period,” but global extent comparisons of paleoclimatic data indicate that it was not a uniformly warm period around the planet…In general…the western United States, and specifically the Sierra Nevada, was clearly in a period of exceptional and extended drought about the late 800s C.E. to about 1300 C.E…
    “Giant sequoia fire histories show the effects of this aridity with maximum fire frequencies recorded over the past two millenia. The overall driest two periods in the western North American region in the Cook et al(1999) network were centered on the mid 1100s C.E. and mid 1200s C.E., which correspond very well with decadal maxima in fire frequency in the giant sequoia groves…”

    This location, if its warm enough, would still be a somewhat redundant listing in skeptic-site co2science/org’s list of global Medieval Warm sites. There are seven other listings, in the various categories, that cover nearby areas.

    [You’re getting ahead of us! This is slightly new post on WUWT; I’ll be dealing with it shortly. – Ben]

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