Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections

Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections“. A guest post by Girma Orssengo “B. Tech, MASc, PhD”. He’s created a mathematical model that predicts global cooling by about 0.42 deg C by 2030. Good work! Take the rest of the day off, everyone.

Uh oh, he doesn’t even know the name of the institution whose temperature data he has used. What is the “Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the Hadley Center”? CRU is part of the University of East Anglia. The Hadley Centre is part of the Meteorological Office.

Left unmentioned is the critical mechanism behind his “mathematical model”. What drives all this? I vote for mermaids. Wait, make that pirates. Or… pirates and mermaids, working together.

Update 2010/05/13: I must have rushed this post, here’s Dr. Orssengo’s evidence in chart form:

Not a great fit or even a prediction of declining temperature. Source: WUWT.

4 thoughts on “Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections

  1. I had an interesting exchange with Dr. Ossengo pointing out that his “model” was not even the best fitting model, using conventional statistical model diagnostics. The best fitting model of the type he used did not fit well in last decade, so he tweaked estimated values to make it do so!

    A time-series model fitted better than any other, but Dr Ossengo was not impressed. We parted amicably enough, but it was a dialogue of the deaf.

    A poster on WUWT showed Joe Bastardi on Accuweather using one of Ossengo’s charts! Bastardi expected that Global Cooling will begin … any minute now …

  2. Global Cooling is Coming!

    The IPCC was wrong in its projection of 0.2 deg C per decade warming:
    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html

    In the last decade, the global mean temperature trend was flat:
    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1998/trend
    [We’re supposed to take a cherry-picked short time period trend seriously? – Ben]

    The pattern of Global Mean Temperature is cyclic:

    [How can you look at your own chart and discount the underlying rising linear trend? You even plotted it! – Ben]

    Get ready for global cooling!

    Thanks for fossil fuel it will get us through the coming Big Freeze of about 20 years.

  3. Ben

    I don’t “discount the underlying rising linear trend” of 0.06 deg C per decade. What I say is that this magnitude of warming is not something to be scared about.

    IPCC says the warming rate is 0.2 deg C per decade, but this includes the cyclic warming rate that must be removed to give us “the underlying rising linear trend” of only 0.06 deg C per decade warming.

    Cheers

    [So we’re the lobster that gets dropped into a pot of warming cold water, not the lobster that gets dropped into boiling water? Well that’s OK then. – Ben]

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