“Disconnected Computer Modeling“. Steven Goddard notices a University Of Washington computer simulation of Arctic sea ice extent by Jinlun Zhang and Ron Lindsay which strikes him “as being particularly disconnected from reality.” Probably because their low prediction for the fall of 2010 doesn’t suit him.
Does Steven explain why the prediction is faulty, or what is wrong with their model? Of course not, he has no clue whatsoever about the how the model is generated.
Zhang’s prediction includes the reasonable statement that “There are many uncertainties with the predictions and the results must be viewed with caution” but it will be interesting to see how this prediction, which includes a month of hindcast, bears out.
Again, deja vu… trouble with the third dimension.
He should have followed the given links:
From NSIDC: April 6, 2010 Cold snap causes late season growth spurts…
…This was the latest date for the maximum sea ice extent since the start of the satellite record in 1979.
…The late-season growth was driven mainly by cold weather and winds from the north over the Bering and Barents Seas. Meanwhile, temperatures over the central Arctic Ocean remained above normal and the winter ice cover remained young and thin compared to earlier years.
From Ron Lindsay: Recap of the 2009 Prediction Season (for September sea ice extent)…
…In retrospect the mean thickness H was the best predictor from almost all months…
If Zhang’s forecast is reasonably accurate, Goddard and his fellow cult members will go back to claiming the data is wrong.
“If Zhang’s forecast is reasonably accurate, Goddard and his fellow cult members will go back to claiming the data is wrong.”
Or you will see a seamless transition from “This short-term trend completely disproves global warming!” to “Short-term trends are meaningless!” Or, very likely, both.
One can only hope that sometimes Watts steps on a scale and sees that his weight has gone down by half a pound, which means he’s wasting away and will soon leave this earth as a toothpick.
[:-) – Ben]