“Spencer: strong negative feedback found in radiation budget“. Sometimes denialists proclaim that there is NO GREENHOUSE EFFECT, sometimes they admit that it is REAL BUT SMALL. Dr. Roy Spencer takes the latter approach here. He’s been “slicing and dicing the [Earth’s radiation budget data] different ways” trying to find a value of CO2 sensitivity that lets him claim the climate impact is small. Guess what? He found one.
Spencer does it “without going into the detailed justification” by:
- Ignoring data from polar areas, where most of the climate change has occurred.
- Comparing global radiation data to ocean temperatures.
- Pretending that 7 years of satellite data is a sufficient time span for climate analysis (try 30 years).
- Restricting his plot to just month-to-month variation.
- Using only monthly temperature changes that were greater than 0.03°C.
- Ignoring decades of independent empirical studies that conclude that climate sensitivity must be somewhere between 2.3 to 4.1°C.
- Sweeping away the 0.6°C warming over last 100 years as natural (therefore a similar estimated rise for this century must also be natural).
- Ignoring the reality check that ice ages are impossible if CO2 sensitivity is as low as he declares.
What does Dr. Spencer end up with? I mean besides the WUWT comments declaring him a shoo-in for a Nobel Prize. He ends up with an artificial statistical correlation with no physical explanation to support it.