“Joe Bastardi’s 2011 Arctic Sea Ice Prediction“. Joe Bastardi says “the ice is coming back”. But it will be a warm summer too. Whatever.
Wott's Up With That?
A response to Climate Change disinformation at wattsupwiththat.com
“Joe Bastardi’s 2011 Arctic Sea Ice Prediction“. Joe Bastardi says “the ice is coming back”. But it will be a warm summer too. Whatever.
Wott's Up With That? 
He probably means it will come back this winter. Also again next winter …
[Yeah, maybe a little less each time too, but that’s just natural variation. – Ben]
Why does anyone listen to JB anymore? To me it seems likes he’s using weather to predict climate.
[Well, he does love the sound of his own voice. – Ben]
Back to 2005? Wasn’t that his prediction last year, too?
“Lets do the Timewarp again …. “
Funny, he doesn’t say what he predicted for this year. Anyone know?
Careful readers will notice that he doesn’t really make a prediction. 5.5 million km^2 … ok, but is that area or extent, JAXA or NSIDC, minimum day or September average. I invited him to clarify his prediction by way of a bet I added in the comments there. No response.
I take up forecast verification approaches at my blog, including today’s post.
If it isn’t obvious why you need to specify the verification, this table of extents (million km^2) should help:
5.10 — JAXA September average
4.90 — NSIDC September average
4.81 — JAXA minimum day
4.60 — NSIDC minimum day
Lot of play for someone to claim they’d made a good forecast if they get to choose verification after the fact.
[Hats off to you for your clear and honest work! – Ben]
lol