March Modeling Madness

March Modeling Madness“. Steven Goddard cherry-picks his way around Climate Central’s new interactive depiction of average US March temperatures.

He does this by picking a location that is not predicted to rise above freezing and then claiming that charts confirming this are proof that the models are wrong. He also picks a juicy starting point and uses a scale that obscures any trends that aren’t blindingly large to assist denialists in looking past them.

Next, Steven will prove that water is wet.

Atlantic conveyor belt – still going strong and will be the day after tomorrow

Atlantic conveyor belt – still going strong and will be the day after tomorrow“. Anthony Watts hints that he now knows that what Steven Goddard presented as a discarded climate change prediction for the UK was really just a movie dramatization. The Gulf Stream, part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, has not slowed down!

I think this is officially as close as Anthony has ever come to a retraction.

2010/03/31 Update: The whole fabricated accusation of failed predictions of a weakening of the AMOC is scrutinized skeptically over on The Way Things Break.

Yale to greens: “abandon climate change, focus on energy”

Yale to greens: “abandon climate change, focus on energy”. Anthony Watts has petty criticisms of the cover art for Al Gore’s new book, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis. How dare Gore have a fabricated image of the Earth as seen from space? Earth to Anthony: every single useful image of the Earth from space has been manipulated for visual impact.

He also touts the ‘advice‘ from Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger of the right-wing Breakthrough Institute, presented here as a “green think tank” to climate change activists. ‘Greens’ should apparently stop “trying to link energy policy to climate science.” Um, the Global Warming controversy has been driven by the energy industry’s tooth and nail fight to protect their profits! Yes, “science has been harmed as a result” but it is by the dishonest denialist attacks, not by the evidence reported by climate scientists. Yesh.

Arctic sea ice continues to rise past the normal peak date

Arctic sea ice continues to rise past the normal peak date“. Anthony Watts steps in for Steven Goddard to make irrational statements about Arctic sea ice extent. It’s still increasing, as it obviously does each winter, but it’s now risen to just within two standard deviations of the “normal” extent! This proves that everything will be fine.

The Arctic Sea Ice Extent isn't nearly as far below normal as its been!

Talk of Arctic sea ice volume is curiously absent from Anthony’s post. I wonder why.

Why Joe Bastardi sees red: A look at Sea Ice and GISTEMP and starting choices

Why Joe Bastardi sees red: A look at Sea Ice and GISTEMP and starting choices“. Groan. Anthony Watts is promoting another “simple question” from Joe Bastardi: “If it’s warmer than normal, you should not have an increase in ice.” Joe, the chart is of temperature anomalies not temperature. So even though its warmer in the arctic that doesn’t mean that it’s warm. Joe Romm’s post on Climate Progress takes this on more fully – “Accuweather’s “expert long-range forecaster” Joe Bastardi has now firmly established himself as the least informed, most anti-scientific meteorologist in the world.

GISS surface temperature anomaly, Dec-Jan-Feb 2010.

Naturally Anthony’s totally onboard with Joe Bastardi’s dark hints about conspiracy theories and “magical readjustment”. Also, he claims that using red to denote positive temperature anomalies is deceptive.

Anthony also posts a blizzard of charts which boil down to an exercise in picking a baseline date at a time when some of the global warming has already occurred to reduce the apparent temperature anomaly. Why didn’t he just set today as the baseline and declare NO temperature anomaly? If you’re going to misuse data might as well go all-in.

He the cooly admits that “anomalies can show anything you want based of choosing the base period.” We know, Anthony, you just gave us a master-class in biased analysis!

McKitrick: Toronto smog models exaggerate health issues – where are the bodies?

McKitrick: Toronto smog models exaggerate health issues – where are the bodies?” Anthony Watts reports that discredited researcher Ross McKitrick has found an off-beat journal, Environmental Modelling & Software, to publish his paper about the health impacts of smog based on 16 year-old air pollution data. He’s also cemented his research with a newspaper editorial in the National Post newspaper.

His conclusion? Hardly any impact on health, even though all the earlier studies find impacts. Could it be because McKitrick only looked at hospital admissions and not at, you know, deaths? He’s proven very good at intentionally looking past evidence.

Oh yeah, Anthony’s contribution has been the usual vigorous application of the “copy” and “paste” commands.

North and Booker on Amazongate: A billion dollar cash cow

North and Booker on Amazongate: A billion dollar cash cow“. Anthony Watts’ helpfully copy-and-pastes his friends explanation of a “new revelation” about how the IPCC is helping the World Wildlife Federation keep themselves well-supplied with new Ferraris by buying tropical forests and not chopping them down. Cunning, but they’re on to you, WWF! Leave the exploitation to the oil companies.

The denialist conspiracy theory about the purpose of the IPCC’s “Amazongate” lies (also known as substantiated scientific analyses: see here and here), which popped up recently but have already been shown to be groundless denialist misrepresentations, is that the WWF plans to pocket $60 billion from rain forest carbon credits. After all, it’s in Heartland Institute associate Christopher Booker’s Telegraph column (evidence of expertise here and here) and another denialist crank’s blog! I guess they’re hoping to get some traction amongst people who haven’t been paying attention.

It’s the blob (anomaly)!

It’s the blob (anomaly)!“. After years of touting regional variations as proof that Global Warming isn’t happening (or is natural, or is temporary, or is really cooling, or whatever other line of patter suits the moment), Anthony Watts has decided he likes picking on anomalous regions. (This seems to actually be an uncredited repost of a blog post by Roger Pielke Sr.)

Suddenly, if it's not happening everywhere it isn't happening anywhere. Someone's changed their tune.

I suppose you’ve gotta say something when even Roy Spencer and John Christy have to report that February 2010 was the 2nd warmest February in 32 years

Popular Science archive made public – your chance to help me find something important

Popular Science archive made public – your chance to help me find something important“. Anthony Watts is “getting his Jones on” about old magazines. They’re going to prove the Global Warming is wrong! Somehow it revolves around a sled named “Rosebud“. Oops, we mean some old nuclear energy advertisement.

IOP fires back over criticism of their submission to Parliament

IOP fires back over criticism of their submission to Parliament“. Anthony Watts copies and pastes an entire article from Physics World entitled Concerns raised over Institute of Physics climate submission that he thinks shows the Institute of Physics defending their widely criticized assessment of the “Climategate” issue. (Their submission was authored by their “Energy Sub-group”, which has clear links to denialist interests.) Read that article title again, Anthony!

Let’s have a look at some of the quotes from the article…

…“there is no doubt that climate change is happening, that it is linked to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, and that we should be taking action to address it now”.

…”we are already reviewing our consultation process for preparing policy submissions”

…the IOP’s submission appears to prejudge the outcome of the inquiry

…The Institute also says it “strongly rebuts” accusations of “being overly influenced by one ‘climate-change sceptic’ on the energy sub-group

That’s rock-solid, Anthony. No wonder you’re encouraging your followers to flood the article comments section…