Author Archives: Ben

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About Ben

I trained as a sedimentary geologist at a Canadian University, but have worked in the I.T. field as a programmer and manager for many years.

WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.

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WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.” Anthony Watts considers this recent report by The World Meteorological Organization a “stunning statement” about the frequency of cyclones. They haven’t increased statistically, so there’s no global warming! Anthony found this on right-wing political scientist (and self-proclaimed “honest broker”) Roger Pielke Jr.’s blog.

Actually, among other things the authors say “it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone frequency have exceeded the variability expected through natural causes.” Emphasis mine. Not quite so stunning. More like scientifically honest, in fact.

This is the kind of “weather not climate” data that denialists love to talk up. It’s a low volume but variable record that is easily misrepresented. They can also count on honest scientists making the usual statistical cautionary statements, which can then be used against them (see Pielke’s blog in general).

However, I think that global warming is actually predicted to increase the intensity of cyclones, not the frequency. I also like how Anthony unselfconsciously posts a chart showing that ocean temperature has been unequivocally going up! Hey, Anthony! Shhhhhh…

On the Credibility of Climate Research, Part II: Towards Rebuilding Trust

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“On the Credibility of Climate Research, Part II: Towards Rebuilding Trust“. A guest essat by Dr. Judith Curry, a mainstream geophysicist, on the subject of scientific trust and credibility. Tellingly, she describes credibility as “a combination of expertise and trust”, neither are in evidence on Anthony’s blog. Dr. Curry has been engaged in conversation with denialists long enough that their murky thought processes and falsehoods have taken on a kind of face-value status in her mind. This is like the false journalistic balance that gives complete falsehoods the same standing as sound science simply because they come from opposing sides of a controversy.

Overall her piece is quite vague about many of the factual matters, leaves key issues and definitions poorly defined, and seems more interested in personalities than science. Regardless, Anthony doesn’t like some of her characterizations so he prefaces her remarks with a few accusations and charges of disrespect before ‘taking the high road’ to “broadly report the issues.”

Anthony, if you did that I’d have to find a new hobby.

There’s a more detailed criticism of Dr. Curry’s essay over on Climate Progress.

The Goracle Forecast: AGW=More snow

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“The Goracle Forecast: AGW=More snow“. Anthony Watts calls “the Goracle” (also known as Al Gore to non-rabid partisans) a liar for his discussion yesterday of the prediction that AGW will produce more snow during the winter.

The controversial claims?

  • Fact: Climate change causes more frequent and severe snowstorms
  • Fact: We can expect more extreme weather
  • Fact: The world is warming at a quickening pace

Anthony says that he “could spend lots of time pointing out why each one of these claims is false, and that Mr. Gore is atcually [sic] the one who is the liar“. But… he doesn’t.

Anthony does mention that it’s cold at the moment and invokes El Niño. Isn’t saying that El Niño is the cause of this year’s abnormal snow kind of admitting that the storms aren’t a disproof of global warming?

Bill O’Reilly hosts Bill Nye The Science Guy and AccuWeather’s Joe Bastardi in Fox News Debate

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Yesterday Anthony Watts announced that denialist meteorologist Joe Bastardi ‘runs circles‘ around Bill Nye (“The Science Guy”) on The O’Reilly Factor’s No Spin Zone. Anthony’s link wasn’t viewable outside of the USA so I chose not to comment on it, but I’ve found a link on The Huffington Post that works.

The clip, helpfully subtitled “Bill Nye the Science Guy on debunked global warming study” begins with Bill O’Reilly repeating the dishonest representation of a retracted sea-level prediction paper. Bastardi’s charts were given full screen display, but Nye was left holding small paper versions.

One of Bastardi’s ‘killer arguments’, between winks, cheshire cat grins and bar stool bellowing, was built around calling CO2 a trace gas needed for life. He even tried on both the cherry-picking “since 1998” bunk and the solar cycle claim (which actually undercut the denialist argument). Clearly Anthony thinks louder is better.

Climategate Minority Report

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“Climategate Minority Report“. Apparently Senator Jim Inhofe, the last flat-earther, and his fellow Republican members of a Senate committee have drawn some conclusions that suit their political interests about the out-of-context e-mails stolen from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) in Britain.

It will be interesting to watch their “findings” fall apart under public discussion as everything they state has been already discussed at length and dismissed. “Honest broker” Anthony Watts is naturally all-in. Welcome to a noisy and meaningless re-run of November, 2009.

2012-07-19 Update: Norfolk police have called off their investigation for procedural reasons, but state:

“However, as a result of our inquiries, we can say that the data breach was the result of a sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet. The offenders used methods common in unlawful internet activity to obstruct inquiries. There is no evidence to suggest that anyone working at or associated with the University of East Anglia was involved in the crime.”

Met office pushes a surface temperature data “do over”

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“Met office pushes a surface temperature data “do over”. Anthony lays the ground for rejecting a proposed re-processing of global raw surface temperature data by Britain’s Meteorological Office. I suspect that the only temperature records Anthony likes are the ones that suit his purpose.

While the administrative issues and contractual blockages that surround the global raw surface temperature data have been known for years, the overall usefulness of that data to scientists remains unchanged. But of course right-wing bloggers and media are reporting this proposed clean-up as a capitulation due to the “Climategate” conspiracy accusations.

There’s no business like snow business

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“There’s no business like snow business“. Anthony Watts returns to the old standby of talking about how much snow there is this winter, thus ending global warming.

To make his argument he gathers selected newspaper articles from recent years predicting both less snow and more snow. Some how this tells us that climate scientists don’t know what they’re talking about. His argument would hold more weight if he actually quoted climate scientists, but that might not paint to picture he wants to present.

I see a common theme to Anthony’s cherry-picked newspaper reports; the “less snowfall” predictions refer to five to ten years out, all the “more snowfall” reports are interpreting the current winter. Not actually contradictory.

NWS to adopt new snow forecasting techniques

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“NWS to adopt new snow forecasting techniques“. Anthony Watts talks about something that his background is relevant to! The National Weather Service is adopting an improved and simplified technique for calculating snowfall density. This is useful for avalanche prediction and skiing forecasts, and might end global warming forever.

Jerry Ravetz part 2 – Answer and explanation to my critics

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Jerome Ravetz

“Jerry Ravetz part 2 – Answer and explanation to my critics“. Dr. Jerry Ravetz backtracks like mad after opening a hornet’s nest of comment just over a week ago when he naïvely wandering into the Climate Change debate. Ravetz found his admission of early Communist leanings and non-violent beliefs harshly received by denialists.

After showing a rather fuzzy understanding of science (“Indeed, once Einstein had (in the general interpretation) shown that Newton was wrong about space, no scientific statement could be assumed to be free of error“) and referring to his spun-out-of-sugar political theory of science, Post Normal Science, he meanders on at great length. However I grew tired of trying to draw any meaning out of it.

I think what Anthony Watts wants his readers to take away from it is that it’s A-OK for bloggers to cast wild assertions around, because somehow it keeps the scientists on their toes.

The most slimy essay ever from the Guardian and Columbia University

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“The most slimy essay ever from the Guardian and Columbia University“. Anthony Watts is somehow surprised to find himself connected to lobbyists that have also fought for a variety of profitable but destructive industries in the Guardian (other newspapers too!) article Climate sceptics are recycled critics of controls on tobacco and acid rain. The ever-helpful Watts gives his readers some useful ways to harass the Guardian author.

I would have thought that losing his hearing and both parents to tobacco-related diseases would have given Anthony some insight into the consequences of the denialist machinery. When you spend so much time singing the denialist praises of Fred Singer the erstwhile tobacco industry spin artist you’ve got to nurse a pretty massive case of tunnel vision not to connect the dots.

As for Anthony’s assertion that the denialists are simply a “growing revolution of like minded people”, I think that right-wing groups like the Heritage Foundation are cultivating the passions of libertarians for their own benefit through flattery and not cash. As the Tea Party movement shows, there’s a pretty big undercurrent of easily exploited right-wing anxiety out there. But the goofy “CO2 is good!” television commercials and those Washington foundation staffs only come from the cold hard stuff.