“WIRED Science: Tipping Point Not Likely for Arctic Sea Ice“. Anthony Watts gets cranky about how popular magazines, in this case Wired, use the phrase “tipping point” when talking about Arctic sea ice. It might be gradual, not with a sudden collapse!
Bering Sea ice.
Easier than talking about the summer melt trends if you’re a denialist I guess.
“NSIDC: Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season – latest start on record“. Anthony Watts feints amnesia to infer that an NSIDC Sea Ice News report called “Cold snap causes late-season growth spurt” means that a cold Arctic winter has disproved Global Warming.
Remember why this is the latest start on record, Anthony? We both posted about it two days ago.
Sugar, you're goin' down. Source: NSIDC.
“March Global Sea Surface Temperatures“. Bob Tisdale posts a whack of charts and plots derived from NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS) data. Not much interpretation though, maybe because the temperature trends seem to be upward.
Anthony however is confident enough to conclude about the global surface temperatures reported earlier today: “we have the likely primary driver of that number, a persistent El Nino in the Pacific.”
I’m scratching my head over the difference between these two versions of the March Global SST Anomalies. Similar, but somehow Bob’s version minimizes the orangey bits.
Bob Tisdale's version of the March 2010 SST anomalies.
NOAA's version of the March 2010 SST anomalies.
“Arctic Sea Ice Extent Update: still growing“. In spite of hearing explanations of why the Arctic sea ice extent is currently higher that trend (it’s called “weather”, the increase is entirely due to localized conditions in the Bering Sea), Anthony Watts reports after a mere two days that it’s still high-ish and that anything is possible.
Thanks Anthony.
“Arctic Sea Ice about to hit ‘normal’ – what will the news say?” “Hah!” says Anthony Watts. The Arctic sea ice is about to recover all the way to “normal”. That’ll show those Catlin Arctic Survey folks with their tents and sleds!
Arctic sea ice extent on March 29, 2010. Anthony ignores that the variability is mostly in summer. Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System.
Actually it appears that Arctic sea ice is about to reach average extent, which has quite a different meaning. There is little mention of the fact that the meaningful changes are in the summer ice extent. They do bury this quote from Dr. Walter Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center deep in their post though and then wave it away:
This has very little implication for what will happen this summer, or for the long-term trends, since the Bering Sea ice is thin and will melt completely well before the peak summer season.
“2010 Earth Hour in California – just as ineffective as last year“. Anthony Watts disparages Earth Hour again. Must be getting under his skin.
“GISScapades“. Willis Eschenbach tries to support Joe Bastardi’s ignorance with accusations about Arctic surface station temperature extrapolation. It boils down to this claim: “No data available? No problem, just build in some high temperatures …”
Willis can make up some number series that show decent correlations, which is very clever of him. But it doesn’t undermine the fact that the surface station data used to represent the Arctic Ocean is real. His chart also deliberately minimizes the legitimate overlap of the two dozen surface stations that are used to extrapolate into the Arctic Ocean. There is no theoretical surface station being generated in the center of the Arctic Ocean as Willis tries to insinuate.
The most damning thing that Willis can actually say at the end of all this is (bolding mine): “Their trends may not be similar at all.” All that waving of charts and polar maps, and this is what it boils down to?
Quadruple those surface station ranges and tell me how poorly represented the Arctic Ocean is (from wattsupwiththat).
Of course if you want to avoid the extrapolation, just use a different data set. There are several. They show similar results regardless of whether they include extrapolations for the unavailable Arctic Ocean temperature data.
Or you could use satellite data and avoid the whole issue.
“Arctic sea ice continues to rise past the normal peak date“. Anthony Watts steps in for Steven Goddard to make irrational statements about Arctic sea ice extent. It’s still increasing, as it obviously does each winter, but it’s now risen to just within two standard deviations of the “normal” extent! This proves that everything will be fine.
The Arctic Sea Ice Extent isn't nearly as far below normal as its been!
Talk of Arctic sea ice volume is curiously absent from Anthony’s post. I wonder why.
“The UK Met Office appears to have ‘disappeared’ their winter forecast“. Steven Goddard returns with more irrelevant weather accusations. The UK Met Office seems to have a different winter forecast on their website than they did last summer! Ooh, this is nasty. And their staff got a raise this year!
Check this out from the Met Office website (italics mine). Totally different from “winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK”!
For the rest of winter, over northern Europe including the UK, the chance of colder conditions is now 45%
Repeat after me: the science of climate prediction is not dependent on the accuracy of weather forecasts.
“Find the weather station in this photo“. Australians can photograph weather stations too. Renowned newspaper columnist Andrew Bolt is on to it! Oh no, the international conspiracy will really collapse now.
Wott's Up With That? 