Clean Coal (Say WATT?) – Our Energy Future

Clean Coal (Say WATT?) – Our Energy Future. More Christmas Guest pudding from Ira Glickstein. He’s excited that The Atlantic apparently now “supports coal”. James Fallows’ latest article is Why the Future of Clean Energy is Dirty Coal. He suggests that electricity can be produced by redesigning coal power plants to reduce their carbon emissions. Doesn’t seem like quite the “warmist” reversal Ira wants to proclaim.

“No coal ever!” only exists in the make believe world where environmentalists want us to go back to living in caves. In the real world environmentalists want to move as fast as possible to cleaner non-carbon energy sources, not stop energy usage.

Coal is central to current power generation in many places, so the more we can improve its utilization the better. But there’s no “clean” version, and it is not “cheap”. Extracting it damages the environment and so does burning it. China is probably the world’s largest consumer of coal power, but they are also the most active in pursuing “alternative” energy.

So… What were your saying Ira? Oh, you prefer direct carbon taxes to “cap-and-trade”. Me too. Bet you Anthony’s readers don’t like either.

NOAA on Miami Florida: Coldest December on Record

NOAA on Miami Florida: Coldest December on Record. Anthony Watts crows that it was December 2010 in Florida was cold. Thus proving that Global Warming isn’t happening.

 

Florida = the whole world in Anthony's mind

 

The Antithesis

“The Antithesis”. Christmas Guest pudding from William McClenney, of a particularly turgid variety. If you can trudge through it all, let me know if I got this wrong…

William joins the long list of denialists who think they can argue that slow geological events in the past are equivalent to today’s rapid climate change. Not particularly original, nor particularly interesting.

His entertaining version of the “precautionary principle” is a take on an old denialist delaying tactic. What if, instead of trying to stabilize CO2 at what we think are natural levels, we should be raising it? The fatalist version of denialist “precaution” saves effort at the expense of everything else.

This paragraph particularly annoyed me for its fundamental anti-science:

“An astute reader might have gleaned that even on things which have happened, the science is not that particularly well settled. Which makes consideration of the science being settled on things which have not yet happened dubious at best.”

So every time we are able to improve accuracy of for example, an age estimate, we are in fact proving that science isn’t useful? Dumb.

Craven Attention: The Sequel

Craven Attention: The Sequel. Steven Mosher makes a funny joke about a name! Hee hee.

So Michael Oppenheimer delivered the American Geophysical Union’s 2010 Stephen Schneider Global Environmental Change Lecture on the topic of “Scientists, Expert Judgement and Public Policy” which, surprise, denialists twisted as encouraging scientists to lie if they felt it was justified.

In the panel discussion afterward, environmental activist Greg Craven, who had spoken passionately to the scientists earlier in the day, asked a lot of questions. Steven Mosher wrote a deprecating report of the discussion, characterizing Greg’s contribution as an even more emphatic urging of scientists to say whatever they felt would achieve their presumably noble goals.

Mosher’s “Craven Attention: The Sequel” post is attempt to turn a semi-apology for misrepresenting Greg’s statements into a new attack. It turns out Mosher was offering a “synopsis” of the “aftertaste” of Greg’s position, not his actual statements. Well no problem, right?

 

For those who haven’t seen it, Greg Craven’s “The Most Terrifying Video You’ll Ever See” is on his website or YouTube.

 

December cold – unprecedented?

December cold – unprecedented? It’s cold! Somewhere (Ireland)! Thus proving Global Cooling! Water mains are freezing in Northern Ireland!

Thanks for the weather report, Verity Jones, but I have to ask; is the temperature record from just one weather station, on an island affected by the Gulf Stream, a useful proxy for Europe? That’s cherry-picking, isn’t it?

Also won’t any single location have more variability than the average of a larger set of locations? Isn’t that the whole point of global data gathering?

I have to wonder if the theory that a warmer Arctic can lead to a colder western Europe has again turned denialists into converts of the “it’s just extreme weather” argument. From the article:

As for this being caused by global warming – bull – it was just an extreme weather event. They happen. Go back >100 years and they happened then too.

 

Terence Kealey: What Does Climategate Say About Science?

Terence Kealey: What Does Climategate Say About Science? “John A” offers a copy and paste of an anti-science rant from The Global Warming Policy Foundation. Dr. Terence Kealey says that scientists have always been secretive and untrustworthy. After-all, Pythagoras had Hippasus drowned for refusing to retract a mathematical discovery!

The Climategate stuff, the Hockey Stick (ignoring all the independent validations) and the IPCC’s editing error about Himalayan glacier retreat are apparently all just modern examples of the same venality. Keep a close eye on them bastards.

But surely we can trust “citizen-scientists” and Dr. Kealey himself.

Amusingly, most of Anthony’s commenters assume that Kealey’s science philosophy essay is an excuse for the supposedly awful things that Climategate supposedly revealed. In fact, he’s condemning all scientists. Talk about poor reading comprehension… I think his preference is for some kind of libertarian free-for-all.

Here are Kealey’s conclusions (italics mine):

To conclude, therefore, scientists are not disinterested, they are interested, and as a consequence science is not dispassionate or fully transparent, rather it is human and partially arcane. As I argue elsewhere, science is not the public good of modern myth, it is a collegiate and quasi-private or invisible college [sic] good.4 That means, by the way, that it requires no public subsidies. More relevantly, it means that individual scientist’f [sic] pronouncements should be seen more as advertisements than as definitive.

Peer review, too, is merely a mechanism by which scientists keep a collective control over access to their quasi-private enterprise. One the e-mails leaked from the University of East Anglia included this from Professor Phil Jones, referring to two papers that apparently falsified his work:- ”I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”

So what? Climategate tells us no more than the philosophers of science have long told us about research, and the public should be less naive.

Here’s my conclusion: No rational person would maintain that “scientists” are completely impervious to human emotions and self-interest. However the system of public scrutiny that has been in place for centuries has done a good job of assessing and validating scientific claims. Dr. Kealey’s essay is nothing more than libertarian posturing.

Where, maybe, do Dr. Kealy’s criticisms apply? Perhaps to the secretive corporate research typically conducted in the pharmaceutical industry. But then that’s exactly what he seems to be holding up as a model!

New tool for climate change prediction – broken glass

New tool for climate change prediction – broken glass. What are those crazy scientists up to now? Broken glass predicts climate change? I’m totally with Anthony Watts on this one, those climatologists have gone ’round the bend!

Oh. They’re just making a comparison between how dust and glass fractures, with new implications for the amount of dust in the atmosphere. What the hell was Anthony’s point?

From the article:

Physicists have long known that certain brittle objects, such as glass, rocks, or even atomic nuclei, fracture in predictable patterns. The resulting fragments follow a certain range of sizes, with a predictable distribution of small, medium, and large pieces.

Scientists refer to this type of pattern as scale invariance or self-similarity.

Physicists have devised mathematical formulas for the process by which cracks propagate in predictable ways as a brittle object breaks.

Kok theorized that it would be possible to use these formulas to estimate the range of dust particle sizes. By applying the formulas for fracture patterns of brittle objects to soil measurements, Kok determined the size distribution of emitted dust particles.

To his surprise, the formulas described measurements of dust particle sizes almost exactly.

Anthony finds an example of the thoughtful application of physical theory, and his response is derisive mockery. Now there’s an insight!

Prediction is hard, especially of the future.

Prediction is hard, especially of the future. Willis Eschenbach tries to convince us that “problems” with 20 year-old computer models mean that we can’t trust the new ones.

Did Hansen, et. al.’s 1992 prediction Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption really “miss the mark”? After all, they did predict a “3 sigma” event and the result was only a “2.1 sigma” event… It seems that they correctly predicted the temperature drop duration but over-estimated the scale. Not too shabby for 20 year-old model run with 20 year-old computer horsepower.

Of course Willis doesn’t give any hard numbers for his suggestion that their prediction “failed”. Couldn’t find an Excel formula for that, Willis?

And how did the much more relevant climate model prediction, 20 more years of increasing global temperatures, work out? Oh yeah, that’s what we’ve had. Willis’ insights are no better that Yogi Berra’s.

This is all just an attempt to prop up denialist obstructionism by suggesting that since we can’t predict the future perfectly we should never take any kind of preventative action at all.

Time Magazine blizzard science sets low standard for green journalism

Time Magazine blizzard science sets low standard for green journalism. Ryan Maue complains about biases of the “liberal media” (that would be Time Magazine). Apparently environmental journalist Bryan Walsh says that while most unusual weather events can’t be tied to “climate change”, the 2010 Christmas snowstorms fit into an expected climate pattern. Now that is an outrage!

Ryan’s evidence: a Star Trek clip from YouTube. But is Ryan arguing against heavier snowfall under Global Warming (apparently not), or the origin of this particular blizzard? It seems he’s trying to accuse Walsh of saying the blizzard was caused by “climate change” which isn’t something that Walsh claimed.

2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list?

2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list? Christmas Guest pudding from Geology Professor Dr. Don Easterbrook. Apparently 2010’s record temperature is “really much to do about nothing.” After-all, if you go back 10,000 years you can find plenty of warmer years. I guess the denialist leg-puller about only needing to look at the last 15 years is out of favor now that 2010 can’t still be brushed aside.

What strikes me in all of Easterbrook’s sloppy “data” is that, at a time when the Earth should now be following a pronounced cooling trend it is emphatically not. Wiggle your way out of that one, Professor.

There are enlightening insights into Easterbrook’s scholarship at Only In It For The Gold (Garbled Reasoning at WUWT) and Hot Topic (Easterbrook’s Wrong (Again)), but I’ll leave the technical criticism to this comment in the Watts Up With That post by “BillD”:

Where is peer review when you need it? This post conflates the global climate record with regional records for the US and Greenland. Then it fails to point out that “present” only goes up to 1905. Over the last 21 years, I have been the editor or reviewer for over 600 manuscripts submitted for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals (I need to keep a record for my employer). I have to say that I have never seen a submitted manuscript with such blatant errors as in this post. Even submitting a manuscript such as this would be damaging to one’s career and would certainly cause the loss of all credibility with the journal’s editor and the reviewers if any (In most cases the editor peruses a manuscript to check it’s suitability for the journal and to decide on expert reviewers. These kinds of errors and misleading comparisons would almost certainly lead to rejection by the editor, without even sending the ms. out to reviewers).

Even Dave Springer, a Watts Up guest author, comments unhappily (emphasis mine):

The new guest author program, which include myself as one of those new guest authors, appears to have fostered a greater need for internal peer review before the articles are published. Anthony and Willis and guest authors like Spencer and Lindzen didn’t seem to need much in the way of peer review but with this new influx of guest authors the comments are now stuffed with repetitious exposure of errors in the articles.

Is Prof. Easterbrook really so sloppy? Or his he more concerned with finding a story that he can enjoy telling?