New paper in Nature on CO2 amplification: “it’s less than we thought”

Anthony Watts reads a Science Daily article about a Nature paper on CO2 amplification in the upper atmosphere and concludes that everything is OK! Being a good “skeptic” Anthony unquestioningly accepts the paper’s useful conclusion…

The paper states that empirical evidence for the pre-industrial feedback of CO2 levels on global temperature may be as little as 1/4 of the current best estimate over the past 1000 years. Of course we don’t live in pre-industrial times, do we? None of the time periods studied match today’s conditions. As well, there are some issues with the data that required extra manipulation and so while the result is useful, it’s not definitive.

NWFS Winter Weather Wackiness

Rule Number One with Anthony Watts: there are no days off. Eight posts since we last checked in. What do we have?

More complaints about the IPCC using information from sources that Anthony doesn’t like. Snap!

More “he said/she said” obsession with IPCC Chairman Dr. Pachauri.

All unusual weather, whether warmer or colder, most definitely proves once and for all that Climate Change is a lie. Ice in China (in the winter)! Snow in Colorado (in the winter)! Sea-level has naturally been rising for 20,000 years (um, there’s a difference between known natural patterns and the human activity that has overwhelmed them)! The GISS temperature dataset is not an exact duplicate of the hadCRUT temperature dataset! 1998 was warmer than 2005 (err, in a couple of places)! Anthony thinks that “devastating” is the same word as “deadly”! There’s no drought in the western US (except in the places where NOAA says there are) because there weren’t any Hummers in Arizona in 1400!

Anthony reports excitedly that Lord Lawson’s UK “Global Warming Policy Foundation” front group is still stirring around in the muck that the denialists have spread about the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit. I guess they hope that 355th time’s the charm.

But no mention of the fact that Watts-approved journalist and truth-seeker David Rose has been shown to have falsely represented (herehere, and here) the scientists dragged into the puffed-up Himalayan glacier controversy.

Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception?

In yesterday’s installment of As the Watt Churns, Anthony Watts suddenly found his lost homework, and denialist carpetbagger Willis Eschenbach proved that visiting a tropical atoll isn’t insightful if you don’t open your eyes.

Anthony’s calling his latest un-scrutinized printout, helpfully photocopied by the Science and Public Policy front group, a “compendium paper“. Well, it’s on paper I guess. Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception? even has that patented question mark in place. [All these question marks Anthony uses suggest to me that he’s subliminally admitting that he doesn’t know what he’s talking about…] I’m just glancing though it and the chuckles are coming fast and furious.

  • Firstly, it really is a century-long global conspiracy and from now on we must ignore anything that NASA or the NOAA say. Got it…
  • Secondly, this is not Anthony’s much-anticipated “analysis” of the US surface temperature station record. That’s waiting for the photocopier to cool I guess. Maybe he hasn’t been able to gather a full basket of cherries yet.
  • Third, his first two “Case Studies in Data Manipulation” are very recent debunked denialist failures (Darwin Airport, AustraliaWellington, NZ).
  • Fourth, this whole exercise is just a copy and paste job of the current failed denialist “proofs” gathered together, conveniently separated from their fatal critiques.
  • Fifth, did I just hear the ice cream truck?

Willis’ idle remarks about sea-level rise as it concerns coral atolls is more of the same. The fact that sea-level rise happens to have recently slowed apparently means that it has actually stopped; the freshwater lens that inhabitants depend on will somehow always float above the underlying saltwater no matter how much sea-level rises (which it isn’t); Darwin says that coral atolls always follow sea-level anyway (which isn’t rising).

Willis, Darwin was talking about a gradual natural sea-level change, not an abrupt, man-made one. Which is what the Climate Change kerfuffle is all about, really. The whole thing about how Man’s recent impact on the climate is different in both scale and time-frame from that of the many natural processes that are also at work. You should look into it sometime.

2010-02-15 Update: Anthony’s statistical and numerical “truthiness” is completely shredded by “Tamino” here.

Pew Poll: global warming dead last, down from last year

Some “political science” from Watts Up With That?. Yesterday Anthony posted about a recent Pew political opinion poll showing that the American public’s concern about Climate Change is low and that even than level of concern is dropping. We’re not sure how that has any relevance to a presumably factual discussion about what is or isn’t driving Climate Change on a “science” web site, but the anti-science at Watts Up has always been closely intertwined with right-wing politics.

The poll was brought to Anthony’s attention by Dr. Leif Svalgaard [Oops, I mistook Svalgaard, a real solar scientist who has tried to educate the denialist community on Watts Up With That for Henrick Svensmark, who jumps into the solar thing with both feet], who may be hoping that his “it’s all just the sun” theory will be declared fact by popular opinion since its finding no traction among scientists…

Well, at least they didn’t use a lizard

Yawn. Watts Up With That? has been busy trying to build the case that an unsubstantiated prediction about Himalayan glaciers in the IPCC’s 2007 Report means that everything the IPCC has published is wrong.  Of course out here in the real world glaciers almost everywhere are losing mass. Even in the Himalayas! Anthony knows this, but that’s not a fact that suits his purpose. He also thinks it’s clever to suggest that IPCC Chairman Dr. Pachauri looks like a caveman.

Meanwhile, a proper scientific analysis by Menne, et al, 2010 of the data collected and released by the surfacestations.org troopers has shown that contrary to Anthony’s sweeping “conclusions” there is nothing wrong with the USHCN’s weather data, or the regional climate trends derived from it. Read the story here on Skeptical Science. [Update: Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming from Dr. Jeff Master’s website is another good analysis of Anthony’s anecdotal data.] Anthony’s response, other than expressions of outrage at the discourtesy towards himself, has been: crickets… He did post a photo of his favorite “bad” weather station site. Supporter and confirmation bias victim Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. has also sniffed about “professional discourtesy” because Menne published before Anthony did. I’m guessing that Pielke doesn’t consider Anthony’s Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?, “interpreting” the same data and printed in 2009 by the Heartland Institute an actual publication. We can agree on that apparently.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography cheapens itself by using the “D” word

Today Watts Up With That? commented about a statement by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography titled A Response to Climate Change Denialism. The statement is actually a pretty clear “executive level” defense of the conclusions of mainstream climatolgists. The Watts Up post primarily objects to the use of the word “denialist”, which denialists are very sensitive about, and accuses Scripps of name-calling and politicization. But that’s the tag you get stuck with when you have a pattern of ignoring or proposing repeatedly debunked alternatives to every logical scientific theory or pattern of historical facts about Climate Change that you don’t like.

Coleman's CornerAccording to the post, somehow the Scripps statement is a same-day response to elderly weatherman John Coleman’s denialist “Special Report” Global Warming: The Other Side that aired exclusively on San Diego’s independent station KUSI (also San Diego’s source for The Jerry Springer Show and Judge Judy). You can track it down on YouTube as well. Pretty quick work if true, and it’s comforting to think that an internationally renowned research centre is keeping such a close watch on community news.

So why is this statement being mentioned on Watts Up? It’s called a dog-whistle. The post encourages readers to bombard the Scripps Institution’s administrators and staff with e-mails. Going forward, Anthony’s audience will be able to “know” that anything the Scripps Institution says “is biased” and can safely ignore research from Scripps that challenges their disbelief in AGW.

Climategate: The CRUtape Papers

Here’s our first coverage of a Watts Up With That? post!

Yesterday Anthony Watt promoted a friend’s breathless self-published analysis of the CRU e-mails, Climategate: The CRUtape Letters. (Some of the unguarded personal correspondence to and from climatologists at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit was illegally obtained and released by unknown parties in November of 2009.) From published excerpts the authors seem to have added a layer of self-congratulatory “context” to guide willing readers toward their conclusions while studiously ignoring any credible explanations.

The trumpeted revelations of collusion and fraud purportedly in these e-mails were presented as a fatal indictment of the evidence for global warming as well as the reputations of the climatologists in question. When the shouting died down the e-mails proved to show no evidence of data tampering or scientific obstruction. The accusations were fabricated from out of context phrases, presented in deliberately misleading ways, or ignored common scientific usage in favour of disingenuously naïve interpretations. Much was also made over remarks about out-dated programming code fragments that were never in fact used in published research. See The Associated Press’s analysisNature’s Dec. 3rd 2009 editorial. If the data sets these attacked climatologists use are excluded from global temperature trend plots there is effectively no difference in the result.

Anthony also quotes their praise of his own surfacestations.org project, an ill-conceived Scout Troop-style project that failed in its attempt to prove that “bad” urban weather station data was giving a false impression of warming. (See here and here.)

The curious book title is presumably an allusion to The Screwtape Letters, C.S. Lewis’ fictional correspondence between two demons about their failed attempts to corrupt a devout Christian. Denialists often try to paint conventional understanding of climate change as inflexible religious or political dogma, but in this particular instance the allusion suggests that the climatologist’s purported deceits have not “shaken the faith” of denialists.

2012-07-19 Update: Norfolk police have called off their investigation for procedural reasons, but state:

“However, as a result of our inquiries, we can say that the data breach was the result of a sophisticated and carefully orchestrated attack on the CRU’s data files, carried out remotely via the internet. The offenders used methods common in unlawful internet activity to obstruct inquiries. There is no evidence to suggest that anyone working at or associated with the University of East Anglia was involved in the crime.”