Unknown's avatar

About Ben

I trained as a sedimentary geologist at a Canadian University, but have worked in the I.T. field as a programmer and manager for many years.

Royal Statistical Society backs “models and data in the public domain”

Royal Statistical Society backs “models and data in the public domain”. See the submissions by the Royal Chemical Society and Institute of Physics. Same general statement, same biased interpretation by Anthony Watts as damning.

There are, of course, passages in the Royal Statistical Society’s filing that don’t suit Anthony’s bias. This one gets to the nub of things:

The ability to verify models using publicly available data is regarded as being of much greater importance than the specific content of email exchanges between researchers.

The data is almost entirely publicly available already. The whole controversy boils down to quote-mining personal e-mails for rude comments.

This one’s also good, as it addresses denialist harassment:

It is also clearly unreasonable to require that any given scientist having published some research is then condemned to answer each and every question that might possibly arise from it.

Interestingly, the Royal Statistical Society doesn’t seem to have any concerns about the word “trick” that is so angrily discussed in denialist circles.

Royal Society of Chemistry backs sharing of data in contrast to Jones “standard practice” statement

Royal Society of Chemistry backs sharing of data in contrast to Jones “standard practice” statement“. The Royal Society of Chemistry makes a general mom-and-apple pie statement in response to a request from the Parliamentary inquiry similar to the Institute of Physics just made. Anthony considers this another damning judgement. My translation: Yes, yes, t’s must be crossed and i’s must be dotted. Now leave us alone, you bitter letter-writing obsessive paranoids!

I do like this bit though (emphasis mine):

Authors generally protect their data until it has been peer-reviewed and published in a formal publication due to the competitive nature of research.

and this bit:

The issue of misinformation in the public domain must also be tackled. Just as the scientific community must be open with regard to their evidence base, those who disagree must also provide a clear and verifiable backing for their argument, if they wish their opinions to be given weight. When disagreements occur, the validity of the analysis must be established before credence can be given to any opinion.

2010-03-07 Update: I missed this enlightening excerpt from the RSC statement, but Rabbet Run didn’t.

Encouraging scientists to openly engage with the public can only be achieved if researchers are given the necessary backing in the face of any unfounded arguments against their work.

Phil Jones on the hot seat – not sharing data is “standard practice”

Phil Jones on the hot seat – not sharing data is “standard practice”. Actually Anthony, the Daily Mail reports that Dr. Jones “admitted withholding data about global temperatures but said the information was publicly available from American websites.”

Anthony also lets Steven Mosher weigh in with more ‘he said, she said’ quote mining.

Still no suggestion that his scientific conclusions are in any way incorrect, even after months of stunningly intense denialist assaults.

Flashback: U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend

Flashback: U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend“. Anthony Watts posts this report from the New York Times on Global Warming back in 1989. It’s an inadvertent admission that the “MSM” were once “skeptical” about climate change. Hmm, wonder what happened?

Anthony intent is to show that Climatologist Dr. James Hansen has changed his scientific opinion and is thus a slippery fellow. But isn’t that actually a sign of scientific integrity? When the data evolves so should your understanding. Anthony also can’t resist a bit of Gore-bashing and some dark hints about “world policy” (code for the unseen commie world gubmint). Anthony also fails to note that the article in question refers to the US temperature record, not the global one. This is a long-standing denialist “trick”.

Here’s an entertaining quote from the article: “One aspect of the study that Dr. Hanson said was interesting was the finding that the urbanization of the United States has apparently not had a statistically significant effect on average temperature readings.” Even twenty years ago Anthony’s big idea had been disproven!

Sense and Sensitivity

Sense and Sensitivity“. Citizen-scientist Willis Eschenbach becomes an expert on insolation and tells us that because the geographic poles receive 24-hour sunlight in the summer they can somehow get hot. Then he uses his sudden scientific insight to make up some predictions and declare his ideas proven.

So, how are these values calculated? And those error bars look pretty massive.

Here are Willis’ Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis predictions:

  1. Climate sensitivity is less near the equator than near the poles, because “the almost-daily afternoon emergence of cumulus and thunderstorms is primarily a tropical phenomenon.” (No evidence presented.)
  2. Climate sensitivity is less in latitude bands which are mostly ocean, because the “ocean warms more slowly”, “energy [is] going into evaporation” and “clouds and thunderstorms can form more easily” over water. (No evidence presented or physical explanation offered.)
  3. The “damping effect of the thunderstorms” and “increase in cloud albedo from increasing temperatures” means that “climate sensitivity would be much, much lower than the canonical IPCC climate sensitivity of 3°C from a doubling of CO2.” (No evidence presented or explanation offered.)
  4. “Given the stability of the earth’s climate, the sensitivity would be quite small, with a global average not far from zero”. (No evidence presented or explanation offered.)

Earth to Willis: Regardless of your naive speculations the IPCC’s 3°C climate sensitivity from a doubling of CO2 is based on empirical measurements that suggest a range of 2.0 – 4.5°C. It is highly improbable that the sensitivity is less than 1.5°C. You’ve been engaged in an enthusiastic exercise in self-delusion.

BWI snow record rescinded: Another reason why airports aren’t the best place to measure climate data

BWI snow record rescinded: Another reason why airports aren’t the best place to measure climate data“. Chicago’s O’Hare airport is bigger than it used to be, although its weather records aren’t used for climate analysis. A weather observer in Baltimore followed the wrong guidelines for recording snowfall.

These two irrelevant factoids apparently confirm Anthony Watts’ distrust of all gubmint weather records.

Un-bearable news

Un-bearable news“. Anthony wants us to know that the inestimable Jonathan Leake of The Times says that polar bears are just funny brown bears. So if they get wiped out by global warming it’s no biggie.

Alaska Zoo kissin' cousins!

Spencer: Spurious warming demonstrated in CRU surface data

Spencer: Spurious warming demonstrated in CRU surface data“. Dr. Roy Spencer again chooses un-scrutinized blogging over scientific publication. He’s selected some weather station records that let him make the conclusions he wants, and when he plots the differences between his selected stations and those used by the GHCN network of ‘climate-approved’ stations, there is a slight trend! Is it significant? Dr. Spencer chooses not to discuss that.

Instead he bravely asserts that his analysis “almost seem to suggest” a problem with the CRUTem3 dataset. Oh. Maybe that’s why Dr. Spencer didn’t submit this to a scientific journal.

How does he arrive at his conclusions? Well he waves his hands around invoking, but not quantifying, the Urban Heat Island effect. He praises the reboot of Anthony Watts’ discredited Surface Temperatures rant. He says that trying to clean up data-sets is hard, so don’t do it. He admits that researchers should be “doing their own global temperature analysis.” (But don’t the denialists prefer to ignorantly nitpick the work of others?)

Finally he reaches the point of the exercise; “We are back to square one” so let’s delay doing anything even if there is pretty good evidence that we should. Thus ending global warming forever.

Archibald on stellar to climate linkage

Archibald on stellar to climate linkage“. Anthony Watts offers a guest post by Australian oil geologist David Archibald about how solar influence on the Earth’s climate and interaction with cosmic rays explains everything. Even though the sun’s influencing factors have been emphatically trending toward cooling and the actual Earth’s climate has been emphatically trending towards warming. Nice Google clip art research David, those charts sure are wiggly.

Why do those ‘conclusive’ patterns have such crappy correlation? Why are you using such indirect proxies and flipping them around so casually? And did the Little Ice Age really last right up until 1900?

Breaking news: the Little Ice Age was 500 years long!

David Archibald, a “scientist working in the fields of climate and cancer research” (emphasis mine) believes that the “more carbon dioxide you put into the atmosphere, the more you are helping all plants on the planet to grow” (no need to add emphasis). David Archibald is a crank in two completely different areas of science? Nice…