The great imaginary ice barrier

The great imaginary ice barrier“. Ooh, Anthony Watts “victory” dance about increasing Arctic sea ice extent was embarrassingly short-lived. Two days. The sea ice increase, basically a product of weather in the Bering Sea, has declined a bit rather than ‘bursting through’ the average trend and Anthony has been forced to acknowledge it.

Since these fluctuations are really a reflection of local weather this could turn around again and permit Anthony to resume his dance. But for now, he must be embarrassed.

NSIDC April 3rd 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Extent. It stopped rising!

It must suck to have to juggle a succession of overblown pronouncements about how particular weather events disprove Global Warming. Maybe he’s testing out an exit strategy.  When Anthony says “Nature is just laughing at all of us” he means, of course, at himself.

Measure UHI in your town with this easy to use temperature datalogger kit

Measure UHI in your town with this easy to use temperature datalogger kit“. There’s nothing more satisfying for an obsessive-compulsive than measuring things. Keeping detailed notes about uncontrolled anecdotal observations is a great way to fill time. Anthony Watts needs money. With these three things in mind, Anthony wants to sell you an low-accuracy USB temperature sensor to stick on the roof of your car so you can restlessly cross and recross your town at night and then spend the next day whipping up a high-school science project about it.

But where will we display our bristle-board poster, and who will judge it?

I loved this quote:

The window mount holds the USB datalogger up and away from the vehicle in the clear airstream.

and the even funnier:

I didn’t want to pass a semi truck (speed limit 55mph for trucks through town) and pick up any waste heat.

Why does Anthony think we need to “prove” the Urban Heat Island effect? It’s widely discussed in the scientific literature and adjustments for it are made at many temperature recording stations.

NASA Data Worse Than Climate-Gate Data, GISS Admits

NASA Data Worse Than Climate-Gate Data, GISS Admits“. The latest scientific analysis Anthony Watts has copied-and-pasted is… a Fox News article! This is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Blake Snow of FOXNews.com reports as an admission of inferiority a NASA scientist’s assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the different global surface temperature analyses. He also presents as definitive the opinion of Christopher Horner, a ‘senior fellow’ from the right-wing Competitive Enterprise Institute, that “three out of the four temperature data sets stink”. When another ‘senior fellow’ this time at the right-wing Heartland Institute, James M. Taylor, is quoted next and the article ends with our own Anthony’s unchallenged arm-waving about the “quality” of surface stations, you know the fix is in. “Fair & Balanced”, eh?

The only hint of reality comes from Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground: “It would be nice if we had more global stations to enable the groups to do independent estimates using completely different raw data, but we don’t have that luxury”.

The real story? Climatologists have a limited number of long-duration surface temperature stations available to them. They use as many of those stations as possible. It’s a fundamental logical fact that they will all start with the same raw data. The differences will be in how they select representative stations from the entire data set and how they extrapolate from those stations.

As a final thought, I have to draw attention to the use of “accuracy” as the sole valid assessment of a temperature data set. Data can be accurate (very close to a true reading) but not as useful (doesn’t reflect the actual conditions over a wider area). The fundamental difference between the interpreted surface temperature data sets is that some are optimized for accuracy, some for global representativeness. There are good reasons for each approach. There are also good reasons why denialists try to define the argument on such narrow and misleading points.

Ocean acidification: the “evil twin of global warming”

Ocean acidification: the “evil twin of global warming”. Anthony Watts copies-and-pastes a report by marine biologists from James Cook University’s ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies about ocean acidification due to CO2 emissions and its impact on marine life.

“Ocean conditions are already more extreme than those experienced by marine organisms and ecosystems for millions of years,” the researchers say in the latest issue of the journal Trends in Ecology and Evolution (TREE).

“This emphasises the urgent need to adopt policies that drastically reduce CO2 emissions.”

This is extrapolation to predict biological impact, not climate research. This needs proper supporting evidence before we consider it an issue or discard it (as Anthony’s commenters are enthusiastically doing).

Devastating non-trends in US Climate

Devastating non-trends in US Climate“. The US government is lying to us when the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force says “Climate change is already having “pervasive, wide-ranging” effects“.

Anthony Watts knows this. So he presents Warren Meyer’s careful selection of trivial regional charts stripped of meaningful analysis and intended to convince suggestible eyeballs as a counter.

Of course the only link Anthony provides is some news coverage of the report, where his ditto-heads can flood the comments.

Medieval Warm Period seen in western USA tree ring fire scars

Medieval Warm Period seen in western USA tree ring fire scars“. Anthony Watts darkly hints that “despite what some would like you to believe, the MWP was not a regional ‘non event’.” Then he copy-and-pastes a University of Arizona news release about how Giant Sequoias reveal fire histories in the Sierra Nevada. (I’ll try to ignore his reflexive figure comparing the global “Mann/IPCC” temperature history to the European “historical” temperature history.)

This is not a climate paper, it’s about historical fire frequencies and even implicitly recognizes the progression of global warming. You can read Multi-Millennial Fire History of the Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park, California, USA (Swetnam, et. al, 2009) at the Fire Ecology journal web site (abstract or PDF). Anthony didn’t.

Can someone point out the Medieval Warm Period?

Another Look at Climate Sensitivity

Another Look at Climate Sensitivity“. Willis Eschenbach, citizen-scientist, thinks that the “equilibrium value of the climate sensitivity [of CO2] (as defined by the IPCC) is certain to be smaller” than that agreed upon by experts in atmosphere physics.

Willis starts his pondering with a figure from an out-dated 1997 paper by Kiehl & Trenberth. Trenberth ‘famously’ said recently that “we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t” (actually referring to the Earth’s energy inputs), but Willis thinks its good enough for noodling around and conclusively proving everyone wrong.

Willis' variation on Kiehl & Trenberth's figure.

Based on his imagining the Earth as a “blackbody” (aka “black body” in scientific literature), Willis calculates a natural warming effect of our atmosphere as 8°C. Wait, make that 20°C! Wait, make it 18°C! (There’s always a lot of revision based on comments in anything Willis posts.) Wikipedia tells us that the Earth’s average temperature of 14°C would be about -19°C without our atmosphere, a 35°C difference, but Willis knows better.

His conclusion? Somehow much less than 0.5°C, not to 2°C to 4.5°C for a CO2 doubling used by conventional scientists. Go to the post and let me know if you can figure out his reasoning.

Late in the comments, Willis lets this slip (italics mine):

CO2 is the only thing in the models that provides a mechanism for gradual modeled warming. Since the models are tuned to the past, if the temperature rise is overestimated, the effect of CO2 needs to be larger to mimic the temperature rise. This is true no matter the size of the UHI effect.

So I guess his theory is that climatologists are intentionally (and secretly) over-estimating the climate sensitivity of CO2 to make their evil climate models look scary. Good luck with that.

Spencer: Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious

Spencer: Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious“. Dr. Roy Spencer is like the Energizer Bunny on his sudden area of expertise, Urban Heat Islands. He just keeps going and going and going, and Anthony Watts just keeps printing it and printing it and printing it. A perfect symbiosis.

Dr. Spencer does finally admit that his analysis “is meant more for stimulating thought and discussion, and does not equal a peer-reviewed paper.” Let’s just say that the “could” in his report title leaves a lot of wiggle room, especially in light of his final words: “Caveat emptor.

I particularly enjoyed this bit of ‘hard science’:

There is a clear need for new, independent analyses of the global temperature data…the raw data, that is. As I have mentioned before, we need independent groups doing new and independent global temperature analyses — not international committees of Nobel laureates passing down opinions on tablets of stone.

He manages to call for delaying action, imply that the data has been tampered with, and cast wild accusations against science in just two sentences! Someone’s wound a bit tight.

Dr. Nicola Scafetta summarizes “why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned”

More "truth" from the Science and Public Policy Institute.

Dr. Nicola Scafetta summarizes “why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned”. Dr. Nicola Scafetta has a “booklet” available from the same unbiased source as Anthony’s own disproved publications, the Science and Public Policy Institute.

Once again, it’s all because of the sun (well, at least 60%). Scafetta even tries to recruit the fraudulent “Oregon Petition”. Oh, Climategate is also proof. Anthony usually give the worst of the solar stuff a wide berth as he’s been caught out too many times.

Anthony’s readers seem to lean towards respect for the booklet’s ‘profundity’, but knowledgeable commenters (such as Dr. Leif Svalgaard) dismiss the paper as worthless.

Hockey Stick Illusion: “Shut-eyed Denial”

Hockey Stick Illusion: “Shut-eyed Denial. Anthony Watts enjoys a supportive “review” in Prospect Magazine of Andrew Montford’s “The Hockey Stick Illusion – Climategate and the Corruption of Science”. Surprise, it’s another vanity publication from an obsessed denialist!

This quote that Anthony highlights gave me a snort (italics mine):

an even more worrying thought: how much dodgy science is being published without the benefit of an audit by Mcintyre’s ilk?

Indeed, indeed…