Tornado season update

Tornado season update (May 23rd, 2011). Extreme weather events have nothing to do with climate change, right Anthony Watts? Well, maybe not individual events, but 2011 has been a bit… unusual. Anthony blandly natters on about tornado ratings and historical examples. More people have died in past extreme tornadoes. Nothing to see here folks, move along!

April tornado frequency. Not a hockey stick! From Open Mind.

I guess “the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado recordkeeping began in 1950” last Sunday in Joplin, Mo. is just an example of how people will “adapt” to (hell, embrace) warmer climates. 116 dead and counting. The dogmatic denialist rejection of risk and refusal to take responsibility for their obstructionism is why I work to expose their dishonesty and amorality.

People adapting to climate change? Photo of Joplin, Mo. by Aaron Fuhrman.

Oh noes! Sea level rising three times faster than expected (again)

Oh noes! Sea level rising three times faster than expected (again). (May 2, 2011) Anthony Watts tells us that a Danish newspaper article about sea-level rise is another crazy warmist exaggeration. How can expected sea-level rise suddenly be three times higher than earlier predictions? Also, the article photo has a funny-looking foreigner wearing a beret in it. Chuckle with superiority and don’t think about it too much I guess.

The Danish newspaper article (Anthony apparently follows Azerbaijan news closely, as that’s what he links to) says:

Sea levels were estimated to rise between 0.9 and 1.6 metres by the year 2100 according to the findings by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), cited by Danish daily Politiken, DPA reported.

These are not new numbers. When a newspaper covers this topic these estimates will be present as even Anthony’s 2009 Google search screen capture shows. The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) estimate of 0.3m to 0.9m has long been considered too cautious. Perhaps Anthony thinks that newspapers should only write about something once? He’s free to repeat his misinformation ad nauseam though I guess, because he digs straight in and sticks to a favorite theme.

Anthony’s rebuttal is to talk about the rate of current sea-level rise (what, it’s rising? Oops) while pretending to disprove predicted sea-level rise by 2100. Just one of the many dull-witted misdirections he’s been performing for years. Unfortunately it only works for heads already bouncing up and down in agreement.

Anthony turns to his sea-level citizen-scientist, Willis Eschenbach, for what passes for confirmation (yes, my eyes roll too when I see that name). OMG it’s true, sea-level rise probably isn’t accelerating at the moment! In fact if you cross your eyes and decide that two years is a meaningful period of time, you can even pretend it’s sort of slowing down. Global warming, which wasn’t happening, is over! Stock up on blankets and woolly socks!

A plot of sea-level rise anomaly, not sea-level.

Of course sea-level is still, you know, rising.

Sea Ice News #33

Sea Ice News #33. Anthony Watts tells us that the ice is coming back. Global Warming is over! Too bad the trends haven’t actually changed. Still, keep talking about it. If you really want Sea Ice News, go to the National Snow and Ice Data Center and ignore Anthony’s spin.

Figure 3. Monthly December ice extent for 1979 to 2010 shows a decline of 3.5% per decade. Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Also, why are “residents of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic asking what happened to the sea ice cover this year”? (Climate Central) As NSIDC director and senior scientist Mark Serreze says, “These are areas which should’ve frozen over in late November and they’re still marine at this point, which is very unusual.”

Hurricanes and global warming – still no connection

Hurricanes and global warming – still no connection. Yep, the tripling of loss-relevant weather events over the past 30 years is just coincidence to Anthony Watts. After-all, denialist economist Roger Pielke Jr. can explain it all away with just the merest jiggering of his arbitrary cost analysis! It will be decades before these storms get really destructive, if you ignore sea-level rise. Thus disproving Global Warming.

Funny, Roger sang a different tune back in 2006 when he said “Clearly, since 1970, climate change has shaped the disaster loss record.”

Anthony’s typically trivial contribution is to mutter about photoshopping in magazine articles and on book covers, and link to his own “definitive” past coverage of the subject. If you want to step back from the hurricane strawman, Skeptical Science says:

“It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency out there but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane intensity”.

Anthony and Roger’s scientific nemesis Joe Romm (in the sense that Joe is a scientist) at Climate Progress says,

So one thing you can safely say about a hurricane damage analysis study: Its conclusions should not be generalized into broader conclusions about the impact of climate change on extreme weather.

So, what’s the deal? Just more denialist smoke.

Time Magazine and Global Warming

Time Magazine and Global Warming. Anthony Watts shows three Time Magazine covers about Global Warming, only two of which are real. Now that’s comedy!

Is the real message this though: “Skeptics”! Pay attention!

  • 1977 was one of the “cold” years. You know, when there were 7 scientific papers predicting global cooling. (And 42 scientific papers predicting global warming.) Pay attention!
  • 2001 was when the 1998 temperature record was still fresh in journalist’s minds. Pay attention!
  • 2010 is the hottest year on record globally and yet snowfall is high. How could that be? Maybe because more evaporation over warmer (regardless of cause) oceans means more precipitation over land. You know, what goes up, must come down. Pay attention!
So did those evil social engineers decide that their alarmism should be about Global Cooling instead of Global Warming in the ’70’s? Did scientists predict an impending ice age in the 1970’s? You could always start at Wikipedia or Skeptical Science and figure it out yourself.

USA record lows outpace record highs 19 to 1 this week

USA record lows outpace record highs 19 to 1 this week. Anthony Watts wants you to think that “snow” (somewhere) equals “cold” (everywhere) and therefore Global Warming is a fraud. His convincing evidence? One week of US data.

In 2009 Gerald Meehl published a report in ScienceDaily that the denialists have tried to undercut ever since titled Record High Temperatures Far Outpace Record Lows Across US. He used 60 years of data.

60 years beats seven days. Source: ScienceDaily.

The last paragraph in Anthony’s post shows that he knows his headline was not only misrepresentative but also only momentarily accurate (italics mine):

*Note: some people clicking on the interactive map will see different numbers, since that map will record new highs and lows as this post ages. The headline was originally based on 16 highs during the week (see the highs map for a ratio of 21 to 1) then by the time the post editing was completed and the post made, the number of highs was up to 18, giving an 18.6 to 1 (~19 to 1 in the title) ratio. Later in the day the number of record highs in the one week period increased as new weather occurred (on Dec 31) and reports came in. The numbers were accurate at the time the post started. Weather records, like weather itself are dynamic with the forward moving one week period the interactive map generator uses, so please don’t assume error if you click on the interactive map and the numbers don’t match now, or in the future. – Anthony

“Gore Effect” on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico – more coming

“Gore Effect” on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico – more coming. Anthony Watts says “The irony, it burns.” because of cold weather in Cancun during the UN climate conference.

I’ll just say that Anthony’s obstinate stupidity burns more.