And the Lord said: “Go forth and model Moses”

And the Lord said: “Go forth and model Moses”. A creationist gets some grant money for a paper on how a fictional event (Moses parting the Red Sea) could have, maybe, happened. He uses the computers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to model how topographic configurations could interact with unusual wind patterns to expose the floor of a shallow lagoon (pretty lousy “miracle” if you ask me).

For Anthony Watts, this is a chance to rant about goofy computer models while simultaneously complaining about the wasteful use of said goofy computer models. Whatever.

Careful with the George Monbiot links though Anthony! Are the climate change deniers with no evidence just naturally gullible?

A non-miracle occurs! Figure from NCAR.

DMI polar data shows cooler Arctic temperature since 1958

DMI polar data shows cooler Arctic temperature since 1958“. Frank Lansner joins Steven Goddard’s love-in with the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). Their Arctic climate modeling in the 80° – 90° latitudes seems to show cooler average melting season (“summer”) temperatures than the GISS model. Thus proving that Global Warming doesn’t exist. Evil “garbage in-garbage out” “adjusted” computer models are just fine if they tell Frank and Steven what they want to hear apparently.

Why the difference between DMI’s estimates and those from GISS? It doesn’t seem to matter to Frank as long as he can wave one of them around accusingly.

Discrepancies In Sea Ice Measurements

Discrepancies In Sea Ice Measurements. Steven Goddard returns for the second time today to prove, via Photoshop, that climatologists are tricking us. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Arctic Sea Ice Extent plots aren’t identical!!!!!

Because they use different modeling techniques that have different break points for ice/not ice. So what?

Of course Steven is really trying to avoid talking about Arctic Sea Ice Volume, which is much less useful for sowing denialist confusion. We’ll stick with extent though and post this image for Steven to chew on:

Average monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent trend since 1979. Source: NSIDC.

GISS Polar Interpolation

GISS Polar Interpolation. Like the Wandering Albatross, Steven Goddard returns once more to complaining that because the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) doesn’t have 5000 weather stations on the Arctic sea ice their global temperature analysis is a lie composed of “incorrect, fabricated data”. James Hansen even admits that !

Steven cherry-picks June 2010 from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) model for comparison because it’s the only month he can use to “prove” that the Arctic is colder than GISS reports. Steven loathes any kind of “modeling” because they let scientists ‘manipulate the truth’, but the DMI model suits his purpose today so its OK I guess. The DMI model uses a different set of records and different assumptions, in particular with a cold bias due to inclusion of Arctic buoy readings, so naturally it gives a slightly different result. This is useful to Steven.

Daily mean temperature north of 80th northern parallel. Steven likes June 2010 here. It's the only month he can play games with. Source: DMI.

It’s always fun to work yourself up into a nice lather, but if data isn’t available scientists will try to find ways to compensate. It’s called research and it doesn’t involve playing games with Photoshop. Just because it suits Steven’s purpose doesn’t mean that, for example, rejecting the interpolation of temperature beyond 250 km is legitimate. GISS explains their choice clearly:

The correlation of temperature anomaly time series for neighboring stations was illustrated by Hansen and Lebedeff [1987] as a function of station separation for different latitude bands. The average correlation coefficient was shown to remain above 50 percent to distances of about 1200 km at most latitudes, but in the tropics the correlation falls to about 35 percent at station separation of 1200 km. The GISS analysis specifies the temperature anomaly at a given location as the weighted average of the anomalies for all stations located within 1200 km of that point, with the weight decreasing linearly from unity for a station located at that point to zero for stations located 1200 km or further from the point in question.

So what if there was a fatal flaw in the GISS temperature analysis? Well there are several different estimates of global temperature trends, based on different sets of temperature records and different assumptions. They all show a similar pattern of warming, so howling about the specific flaws of one or the other of these analyses is really just meaningless noise.

I can’t let Goddard’s final statement that “GISS Arctic anomalies are high by as much as 4 degrees, and yet he claims a global record measured in hundredths of a degree” go unchallenged. This is plain scientific ignorance (or the pretense of it). The significant digits of a result can be much higher than the accuracy of the individual measured values if the sample size is large. Guess what? In this case, it is.

GISS land and sea ratios revisited

GISS land and sea ratios revisited. When Anthony Watts cross-posts a teammate’s refutation of an earlier post you know that it must have been the source of a lot of embarrassment.

Fellow-denialist Bob Tisdale explains, gently, how Frank Lansner’s ignorant beef about the way GISS produces global temperature estimates from land station records is baseless. Zeke did it better though.

Spot the differences? The "Trick" is revealed! From Climate Observations.

Tipping point at GISS? Land and sea weight out of balance

Tipping point at GISS? Land and sea weight out of balance. Anthony Watts gives us Frank Lanser’s ill-informed assumptions about how GISS integrates land and sea temperature readings and hopes we’ll bite.

Frank maintains that GISS uses a land weighting of 67%, which is the reverse of the land/ocean ratio. They’re lying! Aussie dunce Joanne Nova is in enthusiastic agreement with Frank’s stunning discovery.

Except Frank, Joanne and Anthony have no clue what they’re talking about. Zeke explains it to them in mostly small words.

Get your ice here! New WUWT Sea Ice Machine

Get your ice here! New WUWT Sea Ice Machine. Ever the helpful researcher, Anthony Watts has collected most of the sea ice graphs and charts into one page. I guess this will help Steven Goddard create his foolish pixel arguments.

Why the sudden return of sea ice to the discussion? Well the record downward Arctic sea ice trend has stopped plummetting quite so dramatically, so clearly global warming is over.

Those ticks up and down? Weather, Anthony. The downward multi-year trend? Climate, Anthony.