GISS on: How Warm Was This Summer?

GISS on: How Warm Was This Summer?. It was weather, not climate in Russia this summer! NOAA and NASA agree! Thanks Anthony.

It's like a heat wave!

Sure Russian’s hot summer can linked to particular weather patterns. But what about the global climate? Hmmm.

“Though calendar year 2010 may or may not turn out to be the warmest on record, the warmest 12-month period in the GISS analysis was reached in mid-2010.” – GISS director, James Hansen.

Oh, I see. Nothing more than Anthony Watts’ regular cherry-picking.

A MUST READ: European climate, Alpine glaciers and Arctic ice in relation to North Atlantic SST record

A MUST READ: European climate, Alpine glaciers and Arctic ice in relation to North Atlantic SST record. Anthony Watts posts an “excellent essay” by Juraj Vanovcan that tells us that a dog bit a man. Apparently, “oceans drive the temperature of the atmosphere, not the other way around”! Now if only climate scientists knew this… Oh wait, they do.

All the usual claims are present: It’s all natural cycles, earlier warming periods were just like this one, cherry-picked examples are compared to the preferred cyclic pattern and match perfectly, pretending that a claimed correlation means that a causation has been found, etc. Anthony’s contribution is to pretend that “the New Scientist finally came to realize and publish on this week [that] the sun and the oceans play a bigger role than many give credit for.” Thank you Anthony for leading them to truth!

Unfortunately this information doesn’t have any relevance to the fact that AGW is overpowering natural climate variation.

Arctic isolated versus “urban” stations show differing trends

Arctic isolated versus “urban” stations show differing trends. Anthony Watts has a serious man-crush on anyone who shares his obsession with weather station micro-analysis. Today’s candidate is mechanical engineer Pierre Gosselin, who loves the “gate” suffix and knows that “climate change” is a religion. He sets us all straight on how them dang climate scientists have it all wrong.

Correction: the analysis is by Pierre Gosselin’s “guest author” Ed Caryl, whose credentials seem limited to being a balding white male who likes to parrot that Antarctic ice is expanding. But that’s better than most of Anthony’s esteemed sources.

Apparently any collection of more than two people constitutes an urban setting and hence all that Arctic warming must be discounted as the product of the notorious Urban Heat Island effect! Except there isn’t an Urban Heat Island bias in the weather station records…

All the usual cherry-picking and statistical ignorance (“Looks like an awfully good fit”) are present. Arbitrary selection of “useful” weather stations, comparing carefully chosen “peak to peak” comparison points, reams of amateur photos and charts, uninformed mutterings about station histories, invoking long-duration natural cycles that we should wait out for better understanding.

Noise and dishonesty. Amusingly, Gosselin’s own website is called No Tricks Zone.

A cool 50 million

A cool 50 million. Anthony Watts is very pleased with his web statistics. He wants you to think that “hits” mean something. In fact “hits” are a widely discredited, much like everything else Anthony shouts as proof against Global Warming. Hint: each time a web page loads every image, as well as many other items, counts as a hit. Anthony’s pages typically have at least 30 graphics each.

Wikipedia says that hits are “an inaccurate measure of a website’s popularity or web traffic.”

About.com says “Don’t use the term hits unless you want people to know you don’t know much about Web analytics or Web measurement.”

We touched on this a few days ago when denialist/internet genius Mike Lorrey tried to explain that feverish clicking meant the world was beating a path to Anthony’s door. Physicist Joe Romm, whom Anthony considers a deadly rival with his Climate Progress website, schools Anthony on the subject (again) better than I can, so just drop over for an enlightening chuckle. Anthony claims he’s “beating” Joe, but somehow Joe has 50 million hits in 2010 alone.

As usual when Anthony is trying to boast he likes to interrupt his character assassination and general polemics to make grand statements like “I’m really growing tired of the vociferous and voluminous name calling and people bashing, on both sides. It’s palpable.” Oh. My. God. You know what’s “palpable” Anthony? Your hypocrisy. You both encourage and participate in the ugliness.

GISS Polar Interpolation

GISS Polar Interpolation. Like the Wandering Albatross, Steven Goddard returns once more to complaining that because the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) doesn’t have 5000 weather stations on the Arctic sea ice their global temperature analysis is a lie composed of “incorrect, fabricated data”. James Hansen even admits that !

Steven cherry-picks June 2010 from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) model for comparison because it’s the only month he can use to “prove” that the Arctic is colder than GISS reports. Steven loathes any kind of “modeling” because they let scientists ‘manipulate the truth’, but the DMI model suits his purpose today so its OK I guess. The DMI model uses a different set of records and different assumptions, in particular with a cold bias due to inclusion of Arctic buoy readings, so naturally it gives a slightly different result. This is useful to Steven.

Daily mean temperature north of 80th northern parallel. Steven likes June 2010 here. It's the only month he can play games with. Source: DMI.

It’s always fun to work yourself up into a nice lather, but if data isn’t available scientists will try to find ways to compensate. It’s called research and it doesn’t involve playing games with Photoshop. Just because it suits Steven’s purpose doesn’t mean that, for example, rejecting the interpolation of temperature beyond 250 km is legitimate. GISS explains their choice clearly:

The correlation of temperature anomaly time series for neighboring stations was illustrated by Hansen and Lebedeff [1987] as a function of station separation for different latitude bands. The average correlation coefficient was shown to remain above 50 percent to distances of about 1200 km at most latitudes, but in the tropics the correlation falls to about 35 percent at station separation of 1200 km. The GISS analysis specifies the temperature anomaly at a given location as the weighted average of the anomalies for all stations located within 1200 km of that point, with the weight decreasing linearly from unity for a station located at that point to zero for stations located 1200 km or further from the point in question.

So what if there was a fatal flaw in the GISS temperature analysis? Well there are several different estimates of global temperature trends, based on different sets of temperature records and different assumptions. They all show a similar pattern of warming, so howling about the specific flaws of one or the other of these analyses is really just meaningless noise.

I can’t let Goddard’s final statement that “GISS Arctic anomalies are high by as much as 4 degrees, and yet he claims a global record measured in hundredths of a degree” go unchallenged. This is plain scientific ignorance (or the pretense of it). The significant digits of a result can be much higher than the accuracy of the individual measured values if the sample size is large. Guess what? In this case, it is.

A spot check on NOAA’s “hottest so far” presser

A spot check on NOAA’s “hottest so far” presser. Anthony Watts tries to undercut NOAA’s 2010 temperature record analysis by pointing out Heartland Institute presenter and global warming dissembler Dr. Richard Keen’s observation that Coal Creek Canyon in Colorado, which lies outside the +4°F contour of the map below in spite of his claim otherwise, only has an anomaly of +1°F. Why that’s almost a decrease! Except it isn’t.

Ignore the Red States? Really Anthony!

That might work as an exercise in cherry-picking and arm-waving bluster over NOAA’s analysis, but it doesn’t work in support of the endlessly bellowed denialist claim that there is no Global Warming, does it?

At least Dr. Keen doesn’t repeat the idiotic claim that increased snowfall reflects lower temperatures.

WUWT Arctic Sea Ice News #9

WUWT Arctic Sea Ice News #9“. Steven Goddard declares that the topic for this Arctic Sea Ice News is “verification of data sources.” Why? Well a big change of focus is needed because this is what the NSIDC reports:

At the end of [May], extent fell near the level recorded in 2006, the lowest in the satellite record

So Steven talks about “concentration” instead of extend or volume, because that value is a little more ‘interpretable.’ He talks about Barrow, Alaska because the ice happens to be a bit thicker there. He talks about recent Arctic air temperatures. He keeps trying to promote the PIPS data because that also looks thicker.

Keep dancing, Steven, but we remember how you were crowing that Arctic Sea Ice Extent back in March was proof that the Arctic was recovering.

NSIDC 2010 Arctic Sea Ice Extent: an inconvenient truth.

Steven’s response to the clinical dismantling of his claims in the comments is to start talking about football (aka soccer) scores.

Poudre River Sets A Record

Poudre River Sets A Record“. Steven Goddard wants us to know that a flooding river in Colorado is proof that last winter was cold. Therefore there has been no Global Warming. Thanks for settling that once and for all Steven!

Oh, wait. We don’t rely on local short-term weather patterns to understand climate trends, do we?

GISTEMP is High

GISTEMP is High“. Steven Goddard discovers that temperatures measured at ground-level are not the same as temperatures measured in the troposphere. Well, learning is a good thing I suppose.

He also discovers that different data-sets have a different geographic basis! The GISS data-set attempts to include high Arctic value, while the HadCRUT3 data-set (which Steven calls “Had-Crut”) excludes those values. Shocking.

The dastardly GISS data-set estimates 2010 to be the “warmest ever“, while HadCRUT3 expects 2010 to be the “fifth warmest ever“. It seems that Steven has been reduced to trying to cherry-pick the data-set that shows the least warming. Whatever happened to the claims of cooling? An inconvenient memory apparently.

October Through March Was the Snowiest On Record In The Northern Hemisphere

October Through March Was the Snowiest On Record In The Northern Hemisphere“. Steven Goddard pretends once again that regional weather is the same as global climate while making snide remarks about Nobel laureates. This is B.S. to fool the gullible and Steven probably knows it.

But I have to ask; is his “no Global Warming” argument getting so weak that cherry-picking locations is no longer enough? Does he also have to pretend that higher snowfall is an indicator of cold temperatures? Since when does “more snow” = “colder”? Snow volumes depend on air moisture, which drops with temperature. So more winter snow actually means warmer winter conditions.

Maybe no-one will notice the logic disconnect, Steven.

By the way, I love how the numbers from the meteorological offices that suit Steven are gobbled up eagerly, but the ones that don’t suit him are (very) darkly questioned. Are the Met offices liars or aren’t they?

An aside, since I’m covering this WUWT post late and there are lots of comments over there. Steven is getting more and more juvenile in his response to critical comments and Anthony has contributed this revealing editorial remark:

REPLY: Phil, I’ll explain it for you. As a publicly funded professor at a major university who is too timid to put his name to his words, who uses a university email address and IP infrasturcture, and often posts inflammatory comments, all your posts automatically go to the penalty box along with SPAM for examination. When they are examined they get released.

Want more respect? Want to get out of the penalty box reserved for weasels on the public dole that are always critical but too cowardly to criticize on the same open level? Then have the courage to put you name to your words like I do every day and I’ll elevate you. Otherwise stop your whining. – Anthony Watts

That’s a pretty shocking display of prejudice against presumed public employees, proof of willingness to impede critical comments, and an unethical willingness to try to intimidate opponents by revealing personal information. So much for Anthony’s vaunted “open forum”. It goes further downhill from there. Disgusting.

Anthony you are an unethical, unscientific, hypocritical, partisan dissembler. Steven, you’re just an enthusiastically blinkered denialist.